Caution on carbon as ‘China realises key role of coal’ in energy mix
- Targets come with no guarantees and should not affect development, former officials say
- Awareness has grown of just how difficult it will be for the country to make the shift away from the fossil fuel, analysts say
“We are a developing country. We should bear common but differentiated responsibilities that are different from developed countries,” Lou told the gathering organised by the China Centre for International Economic Exchanges.
Han Wenxiu, from the Central Committee for Financial and Economic Affairs, was similarly cautious, saying the two targets were complex and long-term tasks that required full consideration of the country’s energy and industrial structure.
“[The carbon targets] should not affect the country’s overall economic and social development,” Han said.
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Lou and Han’s comments came a day after top Chinese top leaders stressed at a key annual economic meeting the need for a safe and sustainable energy transition.
In a statement released on Friday, the officials said: “Achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals … requires unwavering efforts but it can’t be achieved in just one battle.”
According to the statement, fossil fuels should be phased out “based on” safe and reliable alternative sources of energy. China should also make clean and efficient use of coal, given the fuel’s dominant role in the country’s power generation and consumption, it said.
Zhang Xiaoqiang, a former senior official with the National Development and Reform Commission, underlined the role of coal on Saturday, saying that even if China reached its carbon peak in 2030, thermal power generation would still be 60 per cent of the total.
About 70 per cent of China’s electricity now comes from thermal power – obtaining thermal energy by burning fuels such as coal, gas or waste.
Analysts said that in the last two months since more than half of its provinces rationed electricity, the country appeared to have realised the difficulty of the energy transition and the importance of coal in its energy mix.
“Wind and solar power account for about 9 per cent of China’s electricity generation. The dominant role of coal in China’s power and energy structure cannot be changed in a short time,” Lin said.
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Ma Jun, director of Beijing-based NGO the Institute of Public and Environmental Affairs, agreed that the power outages had prompted reassessment.
“People have realised that the energy transition is hard and we are far from achieving it,” Ma said.
“The central economic conference emphasised that the phasing-out of fossil fuels should be based on safe and reliable new energy alternatives, indicating that the replacements have not been building up and we cannot phase out fossil fuels in a quick way.”
In a first, the central economic conference also called for the focus to shift away from energy intensity – or energy consumption per unit of GDP – towards carbon intensity, or the amount of carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP.
Total energy consumption and energy intensity have been key indicators for local governments to cut emissions and move to a low-carbon economy over the past 15 years. The country also has set national and provincial targets on carbon intensity, but it does not have a cap on carbon emissions.
“It’s the first time that [Chinese officials] have announced a transition from controlling energy consumption and intensity to carbon consumption and intensity, so it is meaningful,” Ma said.
“The challenge is we don’t have a cap on carbon emissions yet. It is time to set the cap, which will send a clear signal to local governments, companies and the society to better guide their transformation and investment.”
